Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.319460 0.372819 0.430847 0.498450 0.574845 0.658295 0.756142
2025-05-04 0.243794 0.312697 0.393546 0.494701 0.617102 0.759610 0.937206
2025-05-11 0.188047 0.264464 0.360918 0.489939 0.656131 0.860973 1.130251
2025-05-18 0.136539 0.211680 0.314014 0.460521 0.661323 0.922920 1.284771
2025-05-25 0.096885 0.166550 0.269249 0.426789 0.656439 0.972171 1.430668
2025-06-01 0.072894 0.138884 0.244006 0.416242 0.682168 1.066225 1.648862
2025-06-08 0.054254 0.115099 0.220041 0.403699 0.703673 1.157890 1.876052
2025-06-15 0.043503 0.102219 0.211284 0.413972 0.762079 1.311507 2.211828
2025-06-22 0.031134 0.082427 0.186147 0.392286 0.766328 1.383655 2.434384
2025-06-29 0.022860 0.068271 0.168130 0.379846 0.784450 1.480447 2.706933
2025-07-06 0.016520 0.056045 0.150831 0.365328 0.796792 1.569482 2.977261
2025-07-13 0.013046 0.049699 0.144637 0.371989 0.849707 1.734631 3.392106
2025-07-20 0.009685 0.042240 0.134293 0.369067 0.886472 1.880446 3.797868
2025-07-27 0.007437 0.037040 0.128080 0.374346 0.941348 2.067086 4.296767
2025-08-03 0.005631 0.032255 0.121484 0.377502 0.992877 2.254361 4.817120
2025-08-10 0.003792 0.025828 0.107724 0.359510 0.995439 2.347250 5.172928
2025-08-17 0.002426 0.020093 0.093570 0.336614 0.982816 2.408369 5.475291
2025-08-24 0.001702 0.016862 0.086475 0.331648 1.012294 2.560764 5.971922
2025-08-31 0.001161 0.013975 0.079241 0.324315 1.034824 2.701287 6.458696
2025-09-07 0.000898 0.012691 0.077930 0.335443 1.107268 2.959929 7.210920
2025-09-14 0.000560 0.010057 0.069177 0.319399 1.104454 3.049095 7.617711
2025-09-21 0.000361 0.008239 0.063084 0.310661 1.120301 3.183178 8.132265
2025-09-28 0.000223 0.006645 0.056975 0.299813 1.128125 3.299167 8.617688